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Sports Betting
We'll focus on College Basketball and take a look at various factors that
can help you to improve your sports handicapping.
College Basketball
College Basketball is one of the workhorses for the professional sports
bettor. Once the season starts in November, hundreds of teams play about two
games a week -- vying for a spot in the Final Four. This frenzy leading into
March Madness means that there are college hoop games almost every day of
the week -- and especially Saturdays! Lots of opportunity... And lots of
data overload... This makes college hoops a slightly different animal. We'll
review some of the sports betting tools that might help you wade through the
oceans of data.
Betting Against the Public and Square Plays
Betting Against the Public has proven to work across all of the major
sports. Its consistency is remarkable; we have seen that Betting Against the
Public and SportsInsights' Square Plays have consistently won in the 54%-57%
range, on average. As we know, winning streaks and losing streaks happen.
For example, last year was a difficult year for many professionals in the
NFL, as it has been called "The Year of the Favorites." This year, the NFL
has bounced back strongly, with SportsInsights' Square Plays achieving 69%
(!) winning percentage.
In College Hoops, Betting Against the Public works as well. However, due to
the massive data overload, basing plays solely on Betting Percentages may
not lead to results as good as, say SportsInsights.com's Square Plays.
SportsInsights bases its Square Plays on its contacts within the industry
(including sportsbooks and "sharp" bettors), actual money bet, and other
sources -- to get VALUE for their members. We believe that College Hoops is
one area where SportsInsights' contacts and knowledge helps to weed out the
noise of "college hoops data overload" and noise.
Number of Bets
SportsInsights shows numerous indicators, with Betting Percentages being its
most popular. We agree that Betting Percentages are very useful at helping
to uncover value in the sports marketplace. We also feel, however, that
other indicators - such as the Number of Bets and Line Movement - are
important as well. At BettingCharts, we feel that this is particularly true
in sports such as College Basketball. There are just SO many games, that
this indicator can help to drive you to the games that the public is
following most. We performed a test to look at how this factor can help
improve results.
Using a simple system that typically takes College Hoops underdogs, we
overlaid a filter that played only the top 1/3 of games in terms of number
of bets. The winning percentage increased by more than 2%! This makes sense
because games with public interest will lead to overpriced favorites. The
moral of the story: if you are Betting Against the Public, focus on the
games where there is a lot of Public interest.
Line Moves
Based on our research at Betting Charts, line moves are a mixed bag of
information. Line moves can sometimes show value. This might be the case,
for example, when a game is mis-priced and the market is driving the line to
fair value. However, in today's competitive sports marketplace, if a line
moves too much, it often pays to fade the line move. SportsInsights.com's
feature on Steam Moves and First Moves has shown that betting against steam
moves is typically the way to go
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